Peak Oil - The Dawn Of A New Age

June 5th - 6th Update
Sold for Gain CPST $531
Sold for Loss
TGC - $285
Omni - $105
Total Gain - $141

Thursday and Friday were full of action from the start but the real story was oil's biggest single-day leap ever clearing $139 a barrel! This with the release of the nation's unemployment rate which at 5.5 percent in May was the biggest rise in 22 years. All this culminating to drive the Dow down nearly 400 points and raised the once-unthinkable prospect of $150 oil and even higher gas prices by the Fourth of July. Friday can only be described as a bloodbath and the only way the bleeding was going to stop was at the ringing of the bell.

As I have written for 5 years now in Geocrisis Peak Oil is real and is now gone mainstream being reported by CNN and others daily. Back when I first warned others about an impending shortage all I heard was laughter and people saying we would never see $100 a barrel. So what is Peak Oil for those who have never heard of it?

PEAK OIL

Peak oil theory states: that any finite resource, (including oil), will have a beginning, middle, and an end of production, ...and at some point it will reach a level of maximum output, a peak. So when half of all oil in the world is up, the price per barrel will begin to rise. The prices will steadily go up, with about 1,5 to 3 percent a year. But meanwhile, world demand for oil is on the rise, too. Currently, the entire world consumes about 75 million barrels a day -- or 25 billion barrels per year. But in ten years time, demand is expected to rise by more than two thirds, to 135 million barrels a day. Think India and China and you begin to see the picture.

In 1956 M. King Hubbert, a geologist for Shell Oil, predicted the peaking of US Oil production would occur in the late 1960's. Because of this he was derided and outcast by most in the industry until his theory proved spot on. He was the first to assert that oil discovery, and therefore production, would follow a bell shaped curve over its life. After his success in forecasting the US peak, this analysis became known as the Hubbert's Peak and was used to try and establish a global Peak. Below is a chart which you can see states that almost all Oil producing countries have actually reached peak. What you don't see on the chart is Saudi Arabia, Iraq or Iran....Uhmmmmm...no wonder all the recent interest.

This region has been on the minds of many for just this very reason for years. Ever see the ending of Three Days of The Condor with Robert Redford? Former National Security Adviser Zbigniew Brzezinski published a book entitled The Grand Chessboard: American Primacy And Its Geostrategic Imperatives in which he portrays the Eurasian landmass as the key to world power, and Central Asia with its vast oil reserves as the key to domination of Eurasia.

Zbigniew Brzezinski American strategist, professor and
former National Security Advisor to President Carter

He states that for the US to maintain its global primacy, it must prevent any possible adversary from controlling that region. So our National Security Policy has been reshaped for this very contingency. This blog is neither the time or the place to discuss the many ramifications but here are a few quotes to let marinate.

"Let's look at it simply. The most important difference between North Korea and Iraq is that economically, we just had no choice in Iraq. The country swims on a sea of oil."

US deputy defense secretary,
Paul Wolfowitz, in Singapore, 31 May-1 June, 2003

------------

... "by 2010 we will need on the order of an additional fifty million barrels a day. So where is the oil going to come from? ... While many regions of the world offer great oil opportunities, the Middle East with two thirds of the world's oil and the lowest cost, is still where the prize ultimately lies, even though companies are anxious for greater access there, progress continues to be slow."

Dick Cheney, then Halliburton CEO, 1999

In an analysis from the editors of Nightline of ABC News entitled “Spoils Of War In Iraq War, To The Victor Goes The Oil” it states,

"The fundamental issue is, the day after Saddam is removed, the Iraqi oil industry is open for grabs, and it will depend upon the government of Iraq to decide how it will dispense that resource," says oil consultant Rob Sobhani, a professor at Georgetown University in Washington. "Certainly, American companies would be in a very, very strong position to compete for the right."

"Once the fighting starts, you have to be involved or you are irrelevant," says Emerson. "And it's not just because of the Iraqi oil. It's because of the oil in the entire region. You want to be part of the postwar world in the Persian Gulf."

The Oil Corridor
And just look at all that Oil In Iran...
Uhmmmmmmm.............

The significance of the vast oil reserves of the Middle East cannot be understated. Besides the trillions of dollars to be had by multinational oil companies drooling over the prospect of taking over these vast oil reserves, there is also the impending economic disaster of peak oil to think about. Our economy is industrial oil based, and without a reliable source, would soon collapse as a result oil depletion. At current levels of US production, our oil reserves would last approximately ten years without an outside source. Iraq on the other hand has oil reserves that will last 526 years!

Now to any casual observer it cannot go unnoticed that in our war on terrorism since 9/11, we have gone after oil producing states or swing production states. Afghanistan, which is now interestingly, but not surprisingly headed by Hamid Karzai, Chairman of the Interim Administration for Afghanistan. Hamed Karzai was the main intermediary between the Mujahedin and the CIA who later became a top advisor to Unocal. It was Unocal who sought the development of an oil pipeline across Afghanistan to tap into the Caspian reserves. Is the picture getting any clearer?

Next on the list we have Saudi Arabia, Iraq and now Iran with geopolitical developments in West Africa, Venezuela, and Colombia. All areas where terrorism appears, exactly where the oil is or in the swing producing nations. Coincidental? Maybe, maybe not, though highly suspect for even the most skeptical.

So what does all this mean besides higher gas prices? It means that anyone who thinks that Oil or energy stocks are going anywhere but up in the long term needs to have there head examined. Which is why if your in the market right now after Fridays close, I hope your in energy stocks because Monday looks like a perfect set up for a Black Monday with the dollar falling, oil rising and Financial's collapsing. Which all means that recession is a fact. Of course for the bobble heads on the news to be saying that is looks like a recession is like telling those who have been knee deep in the water that it looks like there is a storm on the way. Really...??? Thanks for the Update CNBC!

So I am still long in my solars and even bought more on the lows Friday. CSUN is still in a great position with it being down 40% from its fifty-two week high of $19.23 and having posted revenues for the three months ended March 31, 2008 of $77.0 million, surging 32.3% from the first quarter in 2007.

Friday I also went ahead and purchased another Oil stock KOG as I wanted to be all energy with two exceptions MTL and RCH. But first KOG, as you can see this has had a tremendous run up with oil and I'll be in for a few dollars here.

BEXP looks like it is coiled to make a move on any news so were holding strong and looking for what looks like a promising next couple of weeks. With such a choppy market Swing trading becomes more difficult with all the volatility in the market and the day traders making good profits.

My one exception to energy stock was MTL. This is a monster short and long term play. I've been watching this for months and after the split have been waiting for the dip which occurred for me on Wednesday so I bought Thursday AM with a little over 5k. With a divi and such a gorgeous chart, I have to go long here.

Thursday I also picked up some shares of RCH which has some big contracts in Dubai and will ring the Nasdaq bell on June 12th. RCH has been perky with alot of recent interest so I'll bite and hang for a week or so to ride a wave.

Outside of those purchases I am holding about 7k in cash for what I hope to be some good buys come Monday if we see a sell off. I will be primed and ready secure in energy and cash ready to pounce!

Demand Destruction!

June 4 Update
Sold for Gain
CPST - $531
Sold for Loss
OMNI - $105
EEE - $56
TGC - 285
Total Gain - $85

Demand destruction was the buzz word of the day...but that might as well have been the description of my portfolios. With Oil fallen to it's lowest price in a month to $122.30 the oil sector took a few hits and my TGC play just went sideways for most of the day dipping back down to close at$1.33 down 7.56%. I got out at a small loss again in OMNI. In PM it was showing some really good action ...so I broke my rule and bought in PM only to watch it drop from the opening bell.

Repeat after me...Never by in PM...Never by in PM....Never by in PM. And yet there is always an exception and but this wasn't one of them. I have seen that it is best to buy in AH and then sell the hope of those in PM.

I also sold for another small loss with EEE needing to free up capital ans so I had to sell some CPST at the hod to offset the losses to net a gain on the day and overcome the BEXP fall that I still have. By doing so I freed up close to $10,000 so the net gain of even a little green was worth the sells. With CSUN and LDK not cooperating and BEXP looking more like an investment for the future, I needed something make moves with.

Of course JBLU is on it's way back up as expected but my tight stop took me out the other day but is is looking good so I placed in my Lion portfolio the other day.


As I stated ealier, Demand Destruction was the mantra of the day and for those who may not know what this is, I wrote about this back in 2003 concerning the peak oil scenario on Geocrisis when I was really into researching that perspective. But basically it means our growing economy consumes more oil each and the only way to offset this growth in oil demand is higher prices. As the supply of a resource decreases, the price goes up to reduce the demand to match. This is called demand destruction.

· From a report commissioned by the United States Department of Energy (USDOE):

a. "'the economic loss to the United States [due to oil production peaking] could be measured on a trillion-dollar scale...Expediency may require major changes to ... lengthy environmental reviews and lengthy public involvement'...the authors believe "20 years is enough time to limit damage from any peak. However, they point out that 'if mitigation were to be too little, too late, world supply/demand balance will be achieved through massive demand destruction…'"

b. "…which would create a long period of significant economic hardship worldwide."

(a) excerpted from, "US Report Acknowledges Peak-Oil Threat," March 9, 2005, and (b) excerpted from ASPO's March Newsletter.

So alternative energy plays will be a sure thing for the long run and energy prices though dipping today in the long run will not stay low. With elections on the horizon we may very well see lower prices as per usual for this time and we may also have an October surprise, but nothing will stop the need for energy so I feel confident in both the Solars and the Oils for the long term. Besides, were just one event from a pipeline break or hurricane to set off oil again. No need to panic here.

But what you always want to follow the hot sectors and Tech seems to be hot right nw which is why I'm looking at ANADIGICS, or ANAD. I've been watching this since it was in the sixes, always saying I was getting in, only to buy something else. Big mistake that I may just rectify.



ANADIGICS is a provider of semiconductor solutions in the broadband wireless and wireline communications markets. The Company’s products include power amplifiers (PAs), tuner integrated circuits, active splitters, line amplifiers and other components, which can be sold individually or packaged as integrated radio frequency (RF) and front end modules. ANAD gapped up off of a first-quarter net profit of $3.93 million, or 7 cents a share, from a net loss of $1.16 million, or 2 cents a share, a year earlier. Since then it has been on fire and shows no let up. I'll be looking for the next dip as theres no need to chase but thought I would put this one on radar.

Another stock that I put in my portfoli at the Lion today was MTL and I will be looking at this tomoorw AM to put some money into after todays dip.

Mechel is a Russia-based integrated mining and steel company. It specializes in the production of coking and steam coal, iron ore, nickel and steel. Its business consists of two segments: Mining and Steel, comprising facilities in Russia, Romania and Lithuania. The Mining segment is engaged in the production and sale of coal, iron ore and nickel. The Steel segment is involved in the production and sale of semi-finished steel products, carbon and specialty long products, stainless flat products and value-added downstream metal products. In addition, Mechel OAO owns and operates two trade ports and a railway.

MTL just had a 3/1 stock split may 20th and what makes them unique is that they are the only Steel maker I know that mines there own ore, and coal with the added bonus of a rail transport. They are a one stop powerhouse that is a money machine. I think tomorrow if the funds have settled, I'm in for a long position here, especially if it touches that moving average around $50.

Still looking for better days where demand destruction is not the tome but the past. Still looking for some big gainers as I try to mange losses and hang tight on the solars. In time they will move even if and ANALyst wants to say LDK is overweight, I'll just double down for bigger profits later!

FANTASY ROYALE!!!!!!!!!!!

June 3 Update

Today was another spectacular day for ROYL which has played out like some fantasy gas play all traders dream about. Much like the PDO and MXC rocket rides, those who were in ROYL have cause to party tonight. As for me, my gas play was a nightmare when I had to sell QTWW to pay back some house money knowing it would go up today...and it did. Then when I was about to click a buy for ROYL on Monday I instead switched because CNBC which I always have playing in the background did a piece on BEXP and the positive wells at that very moment. So I chose BEXP thinking more news, more momo. Well the bobble heads at CNBC no longer play in the background after watching everyone else have the fun with ROYL as it popped off another 33%!! Just sick movement today. Check this chart out...and you thought yesterdays volume was huge...again I say HELLO!!

So did I get in during PM? Or did I get in at all....? Oh no....all my money is tied up in Solar and BEXP......which was more like a nightmare than the fantasy ROYL rocket ride. So at then end of the day, sick of missing ROYL and a little upset having to sell QTWW... I went ahead and got crazy and now I have $5000 worth of TGC which looked real strong and I've made money on before. I tried selling it AH for a quick turn, got a nibble of 285 shares at 1.57 so tomorrow looks real good for a morning profit....and I need a psychological victory at this point to turn the tide. Though no real losses...theres been no real gains...and BEXP is just sitting idle as people party tonight off of ROYL profits. This should be a CROWN ROYAL night, instead it's a beer and nuts night. Peanut anyone?

A word of caution though, ROYL has had a huge run up and was strong into yesterdays close and was strong in both AH and PM today which was a clear buy for those who actually had money. With this much run up, I may just pull a short trigger as I almost did today with LEH..which I will be watching closely as well. Not looking good for Lehman Brothers.

As you can see TGC has some real breakout momo here and so I'm going to try and make up the ROYL miss with a breakout play in TGC. If this breaks 1.65....lookout. BPG is back on my radar so I'll be looking to unload EEE and reduce by half my position on one of the solars looking for a dip in something interesting... I just have no patience but I will hold for a few days to let the stock catch up...BEXP ..are you listening..?

Oh and by the way, did you see JBLU turn back up with a 4.06 AH? I put a tight stop in JBLU and am out, but still see upside here with all that buying the other night in AH.
So lets se what tomorrow brings and see if we can't put some wind back in these sails and catch a decent wave.

The Royle Plays!

June 2 Update
Sold for Gain QTWW - $140
Sold for Loss JBLU - $75
Total Gain - $65

Today I found out that I won 2nd place in the Lion Portfolio Contest with a prize of a $100 gift certificate to Amazon. So the day started out pretty good and I was hoping to translate that to some good plays on the day.

It was another day where Oil and alternative energy plays were the big winners with oil moving abit higher but still below $130. Of course I don't need to tell you that with the national average of a gallon of gas near $4.00!!

There was also the Biotech plays with meeting of the American Society of Clinical Oncology in Chicago where reports of a cancer Vaccine made by Avant (AVAN) appears to have developed a possible break through in treating brain cancer by enlisting the help of the body's immune system. News sent the shares soaring up 28.34% to 17.98.

So today I had two choices to make with house money having most of my money tied up in the solar stocks LDK and CSUN. Two stock plays stood out - ROYL and BEXP. BEXP had good news on two wells and was up in AM as was ROYL. Having played ROYL in the past, I decided to play BEXP...WRONG!!!!!!!!!!!

Royl had a riduclous day and just ripped it up by soaring 43% to $8.30 and then adding 9.64% in the AH to $9.10. .. The choices we make.... just check out this chart!

I instead opted for BEXP which also had a good day on strong volume and was up 14.62% but down off it's highs which were over 18.00 twice in the day. My entry point could (should) have been better as I'm just about flat on the day. With strong volume we should be in good shape tomorrow, especially if Oil decides to move upward. And besides, isn't that a pretty chart!

Jet Blue didn't get any bounce and my stop loss order kicked in and I went heavy into BEXP with that money and the house money. The plan was to burn a daytrade trip in and out but with the pullback in BEXP I had to unload my QTWW to keep from using the margin money. I really didn't want to sell QTWW as it was up 9.05% with a strong close but didn't have much of a choice.

CSUN got some good news today when it was reported that Credit Suisse disclosed it had a 15.7% stake or 37 million shares in CSUN up from 2%. This sent the stock higher so were holding here with a target of $15 along with LDK.

My favorite little stock CPST broke thru $4 today in PM to ended the day up 3.99% at $3.91 with earnings coming up and a 2 million dollar order. I just can't say enough about this little stock...Love it..Love it...Love it. Gonna keep it till we hit $10. I'm in no hurry with this one, as you have to also invest and not just trade and this qualifies as an investment for me.

We'll see what tomorrow brings but it looks like at this point all my money is tied up. If EEE decides to get perky and bust a move, I may unload as I'm looking for it to hit 2.50. This week has been frustrating with no big gainers, but have managed to keep from losing as well, which though a wash and disappointing, not a real concern....just antsy for some ripping action on a hot stock. Still trying to learn one of my three axioms...Patience..Patience... Patience! :-)

Here Comes The Sun.....

May 30th Update
Sold for Gain DNE - $12
Sold For Loss SYNM - $25
Total Loss - $13

What a difference a day can make. Just yesterday it looked as though the reduction in solar subsidies would eclipse the solar stocks, today we had a reversal. As reported by the AP...

NEW YORK (AP) -- Shares of solar power companies rose Friday after German lawmakers reached a tentative agreement on a milder reduction in state subsidies than some investors had feared.

Before dawn Friday, lawmakers agreed to cut the nation's so-called feed-in tariff that obliges utilities to buy electricity from solar sources at fixed, above-market rates for 20 years. The subsidy has made Germany a magnet for solar energy investors.

So Let There Be Light. I was long in LDK and CSUN since Wednesday only to be in the red all day Thursday. Today we were in the green and so I'll be staying long to see some nice profits roll in if this trend continues.

After getting back to green I just missed an opportunity to get into LGND today when my limit order was missed by a penny for a nice 30% gain as it was a rocket straight up. (Lesson...use market orders when it shoots up that fast) Check this chart out! HELLO!

This miss only proved one of the three axioms I have learned in trading...Timing and Speed is everything... the third being Patience. A triangle similar to the business model of Fast, Cheap and Quality, you cant have all three, but you can always have two. I just happen to be a big believer in the Power of Three as you can see in a blog I wrote here.

So having missed that one and not having had the best week (no big gainers) I decided that being Friday I would liquidate several holdings for a wash to set up for next week. So I sold all of my remaining shares of SYNM and DNE when I saw JBLU go to 3.97 so I doubled down with the new capital. Call me cheap, but I just had to push all the chips from one account to the table for this one especially when I saw the AH volume.

After Hours Time (ET)	After Hours Price	After Hours Share Volume
19:59	$ 3.96	1,000
19:50	$ 3.96	1,900
19:45	$ 3.96	500
19:43	$ 3.96	1,000
19:38	$ 3.96	149
19:31	$ 3.97	500
19:31	$ 3.97	254
19:18	$ 3.99	500
18:32	$ 3.99	1,000
18:31	$ 3.98	1,500
17:58	$ 3.98	1,000
17:26	$ 3.97	191
17:18	$ 3.97	250
17:10	$ 3.97	1,717,378
16:51	$ 3.9663	15,254
16:43	$ 3.97	1,872
16:40	$ 3.97	559
16:38	$ 3.9665	15,254
16:34	$ 3.98	500
16:25	$ 3.9924	2,600
16:18	$ 3.9867	351
16:16	$ 3.97	11,100
16:14	$ 3.97	3,100
16:14	$ 3.9867	300
16:08	$ 3.97	694,000
16:08	$ 3.97	574,300
16:08	$ 3.9985	1,400
16:08	$ 4	478,600
16:08	$ 4	406,800
16:07	$ 3.97	5,000
16:00	$ 3.98	25,000

So we will see how this works out this next week..
it's a gamble but with little downside risk and heavy upside...
I'm in!
As Buffet says, when there's blood in the streets that's the time to go in.

Edit - 5-31

The comment made me realize that as I posted in an earlier blog I had been waiting for EEE to breath. It finally did so I took a position with the dip. We'll see how this plays out as well.

Solar Eclispe

May 29th Update No Transactions

Well Solar got whacked today by Merrill Lynch which lowered its rating on ESLR and SPWR from "neutral" to "sell," due to oversupply concerns linked to possible subsidy cuts in Germany, the U.S., and Spain. In particular, the firm is concerned by the rising number of German politicians advocating a bigger cut to solar subsidies there because of escalating costs. So today was not what was expected as usually happens in the Market when one piece of news can change everything.

Having to be at work for the first part of the day makes trading extremely difficult. The ability to react and get out quickly while watching the minute to minute ticker is just not possible and I will now have to avg. down and work my way out if that becomes necessary. Just part of the game when you don't use Stop Loss orders.

The bright spot was again that little engine that could (Literally) when Capstone Turbine tried to take out 4 again, but fell back to lose .52% at 3.80. It shouldn't be long before we push threw so I'm still holding here as any news at all is all it needs.


Jet blue held it's own after dipping under $4 only to recover and head back up to close up just a skosh at $4.15.
As you can see the volume was up and so we should get our little bounce here, grab a few percent then get out. Maybe tomorrow.

The Stock that I have been keeping my eye on is EEE which refuses to slow down an breath so I can get in. I certainly don't want to chase it but it has some momo here. Take a look.

Well tomorrow should be a better day with JBLU and we'll see what EEE decides to do. Till then, buy low, sell high!

El Feugo Solar Stocks

May 28th Update Sold for Gain
BPG - $280
Sold for Loss
No sales

So yesterday I spent the day driving around town searching for cables to hook up my new monitors I purchased through EBAY. Then again this afternoon and finally found what I needed to now have a multi monitor display. In a future blog I may go over how to set this up

But today belonged to the Sun and Solar Stocks which again are back in the spot light with AKNS (U.S. solar panel installer) up 18.3%, CSIQ up 5.2%, ESLR up 6.2%, FSLR up 3%, TSL up 5.2%, and YGE up 6%. Fifteen were up, five down. Yesterday I felt this would happen so I took positions in two. CSUN and LDK with an eye on ESLR for an AM buy in. I almost pulled the trigger in AH but instead bought into JBLU which hit an all time low today at 4.08 so with that kind of bottom I bought in at 4.14.

CSUN fell after their earning run up as did LDK so I went with both but AKNS and ESLR are the big movers. Just look at the volume!

CSUN looks like it wants to move back up so I'm going to see if I can't ride this back up to 14.00 as it moved up 2% today and with ESLR looking at possible expansion into Asia, they have my eye and just might get my money tomorrow.



Here are some cool solar facts you might be interested in.

1. It wasn’t until 1839 when French physicist Edmond Becquerel first discovered photovoltaic activity.
2. This discovery was followed by another Frenchman, Auguste Mouchout, in the 1860’s who invented the first motor to be powered by solar energy.
3. In 1883, Charles Fritz turned the sun’s rays into electricity!
4. In 1990, a aircraft powered solely by the sun crossed the United States.
5. It takes only about 8 minutes for solar energy to travel from the sun to the earth.
6. Solar energy is measured in kilowatt-hours. One kilowatt hour (kWh) is the amount of energy needed to burn a 100 watt light bulb for 10 hours.
7. If we covered a small fraction of the Sahara desert with photovoltaic cells, we could generate all the world’s electricity requirements.
8. Enough sunlight falls on the earth every minute to meet the world’s energy demands for an entire year.
9. Two billion people in the world have no access to electricity. For most of them, solar photovoltaics would be their cheapest electricity source, but they cannot afford it.
10. Solar energy will not pollute our air with carbon dioxide and other harmful greenhouse gases and bad emissions which is one of the main causes of global warming.

Oil finally backed of it's highs which sent the oil stocks down with some slight recovery in the late hours. My guess, and it's just that, is this is just a temporary let off and we will still see higher oil and natural gas. Even still I liquidated all BPG to buy into to two beaten down stocks, Jet Blue and Dune Energy. These stock are at rock bottom prices and I just couldn't pass up a bargain. At least that's what I'm betting on. JBLU was down 6.80% with a new 52 week low and was up a few cents AH. I'm looking for a quick uplift here at these bargain basement prices. The stock is falling because they have delayed orders for 21 planes to save money which in my mind is a good thing. Back in January Lufthasnsa bought up 19% of JBLU with $300 million and bought when shares were trading at $7.27 each. They are now JBLU’s single largest shareholder, with Fidelity Magellan holding the second spot with a 15% position. Jet Blue has 1 billion in cash with a book value of $6 a share. There going to be just fine, I'm just looking for a short term take off from here.



Capstone, my favorite little stock was up 7% to 3.83 and up AH. I just love this stock and what's not to like. It's cheap at less then $4.00 a share (Temporarily) and it has state of the art technology in a white hot sector. So I decided awhile back to just keep and accumulate till $10.

Stay tuned for tomorrow and we'll see if Solar can stay hot and if JBLU can lift off the ground.

Running on Empty

May 23rd Update
Sold for Gain BPG - $3515
TGC - $723
Sold For Loss XNL - $160
MNKD - $143
Total Gain - $3934

Well just as I suspected the shorts tried to take the oil stocks down but with world supplies of Oil and Gas running on empty they couldn't hold them down for long. Oil closed above $132 a barrel and both PDO and MXC were early moring victims of the shorts . But by miday the tables were turned. I decided yesterday to not get shook out and hold tight. The bet paid off big. News came out today that BPG had won a summary judgment in a litigation with ICG Natural Resources, LLC. Pre-market the stock was up to .55 sold I sold a third for a nice gain and will be holding the rest.



I also sold TGC for a nice little gain. I should have sold yesterday for twice the gain but could not being that I have to work, so when I got home I traded for todays gain and sold all. Because of the gains I also decided to liquidate all remaining shares of MNKD and XNL.


LDK closed strong as so this will be an interesting upcoming week for sure. Enjoy!

Oil Stocks fall back to Earth - For the Moment?

Sold for Gain
AOG - $79
Sold for Loss
MNKD - $34
Total Gain - $45

Oil set another trading record overnight — moving above $135 per barrel for the first time — then pulled back below $131 causing some short selling in the oil stocks. PDO and MXC finally fell back to earth as many tried to short the oil sector today. The fact still remains that summer is near and oil is rising so this short selling may be short lived but time will tell. There certainly were some profits to be taken with the recent meteoric rise of these oil stocks which unfortunately I was unable to participate in. Having had to go back to work I could only put sell orders out before I left only to find myself getting greedy and canceling them asking for just one more day to let these run as the pre-market in TGC and BPG were fired up and looking ready for another explosive day. So with canceled sell orders which would have brought a very healthy $3000+ gain again today I had to learn another on of those trading lessons...DON'T GET GREEDY!

So today I held on to the stock to see what tomorrow will bring and let go of AOG for a small gain to free up capital and MNKD for a small loss for the same. Today was one of those shoulda, coulda, woulda days as I made the mistake of not taking a $1200 profit only because it had been over $3000 earlier in the day. But this lesson like so many others is now burned into the brain that a profit is a profit and capital not moving is dead money. My thinking is that energy is only going up, but these spikes we have seen had to take a breather, and that's just what I think they will do, breath for abit. Natural gas is only going higher and SUV's still need to get to work with China and India growing exponentially in their energy usage.

The bright side of the day is the contest for TheLion.com portfolio ends next week and while in second place, the race is getting tighter. Stay tuned to see how this all ends up with three trading days left.

OIL - GAS - OIL -GAS Take Your Pick!

May 21 Review
Sold for Gain
FPP - $2410
ROYL - $505
Sold for Loss
XNL - $384
Total Gain - $2531

It was another crazy day in the energy sector as oil tops $132 with the big news that Crude futures are trading over $140! Are we going to see $150 a barrel oil? Back in 2003 I created a website called GeoCrisis that predicted this very thing with the advent of Peak Oil. The real question is how long can this bull run?

PDO showed no signs of stopping again today closing at $27.10 up 18.60% and FPP was all over the place with huge volume as expected. It had a low of $5.80 and a high $8.54 before closing at $7.23.


I sold all at $8.00 and would have bought more on the dip but decided to add positions in two stocks I had been watching TGC and BPG. At one point I could have taken another $1000 gain in both of these but will hold to see what tomorrow will bring. Both closed very strong which is what I look for with TGC up 35.42% at $1.30 and BPG up 36.17% closing at .30. Buyers were at the ready till the closing bell so with such strong closings I should be in very good shape going into tomorrow for some decent gains.



BPI Energy Holdings, Inc. is engaged in the exploration, production and commercial sale of coalbed methane (CBM). CBM is a form of natural gas that is generated during coal formation and is contained in underground coal seams and abandoned mines. It focuses in the acquisition, exploration, development and production of CBM reserves located in the Illinois Basin, which covers approximately 60,000 square miles in the mid to southern part of Illinois, southwest Indiana and northwest Kentucky.



TENGASCO, Inc. is in the business of exploring for, producing and transporting oil and natural gas in Kansas and Tennessee. The Company leases producing and non-producing properties with a view toward exploration and development, and owns pipeline and other infrastructure facilities used to provide transportation services. It utilizes seismic technology for the discovery of reserves. The principal markets for the Company’s crude oil are local refining companies, local utilities and private industry endusers.

The big loss of the day was one I told myself to put a stop loss on....but did I.....? Of course not! So I had to pull the trigger fro a loss on XNL....just to much downside and a VERY weak closing.

I'm still holding on to SYNM, AOG and as you can see in the holdings section IMB and MNKD. The first two look good going into tomorrow with SYNM up 7.91% and up in AH. AOG closed up a nice 11.59% so we should have another $2500 day if we play the trades right. One thing I have learned is timing, patience and letting go of all fear and any ego. If you believe in it after doing your DD, buy on the dips and sell into the tops of that strength in the high. And if you were wrong, and Lord knows I have made many mistakes, PRESERVE YOUR CAPITAL and get out before you get trapped and have to average down. Something I have learned the hard way as all traders do. There is nothing like a big loss to strengthen those memory cells into lessons learned. The trick is to put it behind you and move on with the next trade and make up the loss.

Of course I'm still holding CPST even through this down day as I committed the day traders sin.... I have grown attached to it and believe in it's technology...time will tell. Stay tuned for tomorrow's updates as we should have a good day and I will be looking to take gains and enter new positions if the capital is released in one of the accounts.

Caution - Gas Stocks on Fire!

Sold For Gain
CPSL - $734
MPET - $119
Total Gain for Today - $853

So today was my first day back to work in a week which means my trading time is limited to a my mid day off time after the market has chosen it's early morning risers. Just as expected energy stocks were on fire as well as anything having to do with Clean energy such as Bio-mass fuels or synthetic liquid hydrocarbons. I set myself up yesterday for some good gains and will be holding those positions through tomorrow as I believe some of these plays are just taking off while others may have a few more days left.

Though I had to work today, I was able to also work my way up to second place as DELTA on the Lion's Portfolio list for top gains in the last 30 days. Check it out!

While I said I was going to hang on to CPSL till $10 I came across an article that made me rethink this strategy when it discussed the possible dilution of the stock through selling more shares for capital investments in a new annealing line for producing high quality stainless steel and a new 1700mm cold roll mill at its facilities in Shanghai. So I sold and took a profit of $719 to get myself set up for what I expect to be another run in the energy sector.

Yesterday I took positions in FPP, ROYL, SYNM and MPET. MPET was moving to slow for me as I want my capital to be moving at all times when possible so I sold MPET today for a small gain of $119 and increased my positions in SYNM buying on the dips today around $2.50 twice. Though SYNM has had a remarkable run, I still believe this has some more energy in it to propel it to $3.00. Not only did SYNM regain the Nasdaq Compliance but Dynamic Fuels LLC were just giving preliminary approval for Bonds to fund the building of the company's first renewable synthetic fuels facility in Geismar, Louisiana. Dynamic is a 50:50 venture between Syntroleum Corporation (Nasdaq: SYNM) and Tyson Foods, Inc. (NYSE: TSN) to convert low grade, inedible fats and greases into renewable synthetic diesel, jet and military fuel. Syntroleum Corporation owns the Syntroleum(r) Process for converting synthesis gas derived from biomass, coal, natural gas and other carbon-based feedstocks, and the Bio-Synfining technology for converting animal fat and vegetable oil feedstocks into synthetic liquid hydrocarbons. The Company plans to use its technology to develop and participate in synthetic and renewable fuel projects utilizing the Company's technology in a number of global locations.

As you can see by the chart SYNM has been unstoppable since mid April and had tremendous buying power today. This should hit $3.00 with no problem so I went all in with what I had left in one of my three accounts.

The second holding is FPP which just was went ballistic today and looks like to will continue it's fun ride. Like PDO which closed at $22.85 up another crazy 24.86% (Did I really sell this at $18.50? Lesson learned!) and MXC which just went nuclear closing at $42.53 up a whopping 52.44%!!!!! If you ever wanted to just weep at a chart knowing you didn't buy, just look at this baby! All I can say is WOW!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

No...your eyes are not deceiving you...that is just about the craziest lift off I have ever seen...and I didn't buy...oh well, lot's of lessons learned in this trading game, you just have to move on and find the next play. Which is why I'm in FPP. I could have sold for a $1275 gain but decided that the momo on this one was just too strong so we're going into tomorrow loaded in the energy sector.

As you can see the volume and buying power were just unreal and I would have been a fool to sell today. So we're holding here and also in ROYL.

Another solid day with what I believe is more to come. I read today where a trader called IR and was told there will be some upcoming news about a possible Natural Gas play they may have in there Utah holdings. Might have to hold to see where this one goes as it was up 20.47% to close at $5.59 with on huge volume. SHould have added at the $3.50 dip as it was up AH.

CPST continues it's slow steady climb to $3.95 so I still cannot sell and will hold here and possibly add more as I am a solid believer in their incredible technology that even NASA is exploring.

New additions to the portfolio were AOG and XNL. Pure spec plays with energy being hotter then even the sun and Solar stocks. AOG or Aurora Oil & Gas Corporation is an independent energy company focused on the exploration and development of unconventional natural gas reserves. The Company’s projects target unconventional shale plays where large acreage blocks can be evaluated with a series of low-cost test wells.

AOG was up 52.65% at .69 and XNL was up 19.5% at .75 in sympathy with PEIX but reached as high as .99. So tomorrow should be an interesting day with lots of profits to be made. Stay tuned to see how much gas these energy pays have!

Oil and China Steel -May 19th Update

CHINA STEEL SOARS!

Sold For Gain Today
PDO - $2165
CPSL - $722
MTZ - $66
ICPR $25
Sold for Loss Today
EWST - $11

Total Gain Today $2967!!

China Steel and Energy stocks again led the day with Solar taking gains and settling down towards the end of the day. But the story was China Steel CPSL, SUTR and Energy Stocks PDO, MXP, FPP, MPET and SYNM.

CNBC had one guest reporting that global demand for steel was IMMENSE! Again, RIO, MTL and the likes have been excellent plays and continue to be, but to be able to buy a China Steel company for less the $8 a share is simply a STEAL. :-)

China Precision Steel is a niche precision steel processing company principally engaged in producing and selling high precision cold-rolled steel products with high margin. I sold half my position today for a solid gain, but a better play would have been to hold all of it. This one showed incredible stength in the market today with big money buys on the dips and closed up 33.33% at $7.96. I'm looking at $10 for this before I consider selling.


The big question of the day was whether or not PDO would hold on to it's 65%+ gains or could the shorts to take it down. By the end of the day PDO proved it's place on the scene adding another 16.90% as this looks like a perfect short squeeze in the making when IBD releases it's new rankings.

Although I believe EWST will be a terrific stock, there just isn't enough volume in this one yet so I sold off my position for an $11 loss and took positions in FPP, SYNM, ROYL as the energy plays are just too good to pass up. As you can see overall it was a VERY GOOD day and I think I'm set up nicely going into the week. I took all the profits from PDO to get into these new plays. FPP closed at $4.28 up 36.37%, SYNM closed at $2.45 up 31.02% and ROYL at $4.64 up 12.94%.

SYNM has been ripping it up lately and they should. Syntroleum is utilizing its Bio-Synfining™ technology to produce renewable synthetic fuels with the same superior qualities as petroleum based products.

FieldPoint Petroleum Corporation or FPP is engaged in oil and gas exploration, production, and acquisition.

As of January 2008, the Company has varying ownership interest in approximately 300 wells located in Oklahoma, Louisiana, New Mexico, Texas and Wyoming. Perfect plays with energy stocks soaring so this should be another good week.

Magellan Petroleum Corporation MPET was another pick added to the portfolio and is engaged in the sale of oil and gas and the exploration for and development of oil and gas reserves. The Company has operations in Australia, Canada and the United Kingdom. Again another mover right now in the market and at $1.83 could see some big gains fast.

Finally Capstone Turbine had another great day and thought Ii could have sold at the high in the of $3.8o's but I just feel this company is more of a long term hold. If you haven't seen what they build, check out this video an then you to just might be as excited as I am about there future.