Friday, May 30, 2008

Here Comes The Sun.....


May 30th Update
Sold for Gain DNE - $12
Sold For Loss SYNM - $25
Total Loss - $13

What a difference a day can make. Just yesterday it looked as though the reduction in solar subsidies would eclipse the solar stocks, today we had a reversal. As reported by the AP...

NEW YORK (AP) -- Shares of solar power companies rose Friday after German lawmakers reached a tentative agreement on a milder reduction in state subsidies than some investors had feared.

Before dawn Friday, lawmakers agreed to cut the nation's so-called feed-in tariff that obliges utilities to buy electricity from solar sources at fixed, above-market rates for 20 years. The subsidy has made Germany a magnet for solar energy investors.

So Let There Be Light. I was long in LDK and CSUN since Wednesday only to be in the red all day Thursday. Today we were in the green and so I'll be staying long to see some nice profits roll in if this trend continues.



After getting back to green I just missed an opportunity to get into LGND today when my limit order was missed by a penny for a nice 30% gain as it was a rocket straight up. (Lesson...use market orders when it shoots up that fast) Check this chart out! HELLO!




This miss only proved one of the three axioms I have learned in trading...Timing and Speed is everything... the third being Patience. A triangle similar to the business model of Fast, Cheap and Quality, you cant have all three, but you can always have two. I just happen to be a big believer in the Power of Three as you can see in a blog I wrote here.

So having missed that one and not having had the best week (no big gainers) I decided that being Friday I would liquidate several holdings for a wash to set up for next week. So I sold all of my remaining shares of SYNM and DNE when I saw JBLU go to 3.97 so I doubled down with the new capital. Call me cheap, but I just had to push all the chips from one account to the table for this one especially when I saw the AH volume.

After Hours
Time (ET)
After Hours
Price
After Hours
Share Volume
19:59 $ 3.96 1,000
19:50 $ 3.96 1,900
19:45 $ 3.96 500
19:43 $ 3.96 1,000
19:38 $ 3.96 149
19:31 $ 3.97 500
19:31 $ 3.97 254
19:18 $ 3.99 500
18:32 $ 3.99 1,000
18:31 $ 3.98 1,500
17:58 $ 3.98 1,000
17:26 $ 3.97 191
17:18 $ 3.97 250
17:10 $ 3.97 1,717,378
16:51 $ 3.9663 15,254
16:43 $ 3.97 1,872
16:40 $ 3.97 559
16:38 $ 3.9665 15,254
16:34 $ 3.98 500
16:25 $ 3.9924 2,600
16:18 $ 3.9867 351
16:16 $ 3.97 11,100
16:14 $ 3.97 3,100
16:14 $ 3.9867 300
16:08 $ 3.97 694,000
16:08 $ 3.97 574,300
16:08 $ 3.9985 1,400
16:08 $ 4 478,600
16:08 $ 4 406,800
16:07 $ 3.97 5,000
16:00 $ 3.98 25,000

So we will see how this works out this next week..
it's a gamble but with little downside risk and heavy upside...
I'm in!
As Buffet says, when there's blood in the streets that's the time to go in.


Edit - 5-31
The comment made me realize that as I posted in an earlier blog I had been waiting for EEE to breath. It finally did so I took a position with the dip. We'll see how this plays out as well.

Thursday, May 29, 2008

Solar Eclispe


May 29th Update No Transactions


Well Solar got whacked today by Merrill Lynch which lowered its rating on ESLR and SPWR from "neutral" to "sell," due to oversupply concerns linked to possible subsidy cuts in Germany, the U.S., and Spain. In particular, the firm is concerned by the rising number of German politicians advocating a bigger cut to solar subsidies there because of escalating costs. So today was not what was expected as usually happens in the Market when one piece of news can change everything.

Having to be at work for the first part of the day makes trading extremely difficult. The ability to react and get out quickly while watching the minute to minute ticker is just not possible and I will now have to avg. down and work my way out if that becomes necessary. Just part of the game when you don't use Stop Loss orders.

The bright spot was again that little engine that could (Literally) when Capstone Turbine tried to take out 4 again, but fell back to lose .52% at 3.80. It shouldn't be long before we push threw so I'm still holding here as any news at all is all it needs.


Jet blue held it's own after dipping under $4 only to recover and head back up to close up just a skosh at $4.15.
As you can see the volume was up and so we should get our little bounce here, grab a few percent then get out. Maybe tomorrow.

The Stock that I have been keeping my eye on is EEE which refuses to slow down an breath so I can get in. I certainly don't want to chase it but it has some momo here. Take a look.

Well tomorrow should be a better day with JBLU and we'll see what EEE decides to do. Till then, buy low, sell high!

Wednesday, May 28, 2008

El Feugo Solar Stocks

May 28th Update Sold for Gain
BPG - $280
Sold for Loss
No sales


So yesterday I spent the day driving around town searching for cables to hook up my new monitors I purchased through EBAY. Then again this afternoon and finally found what I needed to now have a multi monitor display. In a future blog I may go over how to set this up

But today belonged to the Sun and Solar Stocks which again are back in the spot light with AKNS (U.S. solar panel installer) up 18.3%, CSIQ up 5.2%, ESLR up 6.2%, FSLR up 3%, TSL up 5.2%, and YGE up 6%. Fifteen were up, five down. Yesterday I felt this would happen so I took positions in two. CSUN and LDK with an eye on ESLR for an AM buy in. I almost pulled the trigger in AH but instead bought into JBLU which hit an all time low today at 4.08 so with that kind of bottom I bought in at 4.14.

CSUN fell after their earning run up as did LDK so I went with both but AKNS and ESLR are the big movers. Just look at the volume!


CSUN looks like it wants to move back up so I'm going to see if I can't ride this back up to 14.00 as it moved up 2% today and with ESLR looking at possible expansion into Asia, they have my eye and just might get my money tomorrow.



Here are some cool solar facts you might be interested in.
  1. It wasn’t until 1839 when French physicist Edmond Becquerel first discovered photovoltaic activity.
  2. This discovery was followed by another Frenchman, Auguste Mouchout, in the 1860’s who invented the first motor to be powered by solar energy.
  3. In 1883, Charles Fritz turned the sun’s rays into electricity!
  4. In 1990, a aircraft powered solely by the sun crossed the United States.
  5. It takes only about 8 minutes for solar energy to travel from the sun to the earth.
  6. Solar energy is measured in kilowatt-hours. One kilowatt hour (kWh) is the amount of energy needed to burn a 100 watt light bulb for 10 hours.
  7. If we covered a small fraction of the Sahara desert with photovoltaic cells, we could generate all the world’s electricity requirements.
  8. Enough sunlight falls on the earth every minute to meet the world’s energy demands for an entire year.
  9. Two billion people in the world have no access to electricity. For most of them, solar photovoltaics would be their cheapest electricity source, but they cannot afford it.
  10. Solar energy will not pollute our air with carbon dioxide and other harmful greenhouse gases and bad emissions which is one of the main causes of global warming.
Oil finally backed of it's highs which sent the oil stocks down with some slight recovery in the late hours. My guess, and it's just that, is this is just a temporary let off and we will still see higher oil and natural gas. Even still I liquidated all BPG to buy into to two beaten down stocks, Jet Blue and Dune Energy. These stock are at rock bottom prices and I just couldn't pass up a bargain. At least that's what I'm betting on. JBLU was down 6.80% with a new 52 week low and was up a few cents AH. I'm looking for a quick uplift here at these bargain basement prices. The stock is falling because they have delayed orders for 21 planes to save money which in my mind is a good thing. Back in January Lufthasnsa bought up 19% of JBLU with $300 million and bought when shares were trading at $7.27 each. They are now JBLU’s single largest shareholder, with Fidelity Magellan holding the second spot with a 15% position. Jet Blue has 1 billion in cash with a book value of $6 a share. There going to be just fine, I'm just looking for a short term take off from here.



Capstone, my favorite little stock was up 7% to 3.83 and up AH. I just love this stock and what's not to like. It's cheap at less then $4.00 a share (Temporarily) and it has state of the art technology in a white hot sector. So I decided awhile back to just keep and accumulate till $10.

Stay tuned for tomorrow and we'll see if Solar can stay hot and if JBLU can lift off the ground.

Friday, May 23, 2008

Running on Empty


May 23rd Update
Sold for Gain BPG - $3515
TGC - $723

Sold For Loss XNL - $160
MNKD - $143
Total Gain - $3934

Well just as I suspected the shorts tried to take the oil stocks down but with world supplies of Oil and Gas running on empty they couldn't hold them down for long. Oil closed above $132 a barrel and both PDO and MXC were early moring victims of the shorts . But by miday the tables were turned. I decided yesterday to not get shook out and hold tight. The bet paid off big. News came out today that BPG had won a summary judgment in a litigation with ICG Natural Resources, LLC. Pre-market the stock was up to .55 sold I sold a third for a nice gain and will be holding the rest.



I also sold TGC for a nice little gain. I should have sold yesterday for twice the gain but could not being that I have to work, so when I got home I traded for todays gain and sold all. Because of the gains I also decided to liquidate all remaining shares of MNKD and XNL.


LDK closed strong as so this will be an interesting upcoming week for sure. Enjoy!

Thursday, May 22, 2008

Oil Stocks fall back to Earth - For the Moment?


Sold for Gain
AOG - $79
Sold for Loss
MNKD - $34
Total Gain - $45

Oil set another trading record overnight — moving above $135 per barrel for the first time — then pulled back below $131 causing some short selling in the oil stocks. PDO and MXC finally fell back to earth as many tried to short the oil sector today. The fact still remains that summer is near and oil is rising so this short selling may be short lived but time will tell. There certainly were some profits to be taken with the recent meteoric rise of these oil stocks which unfortunately I was unable to participate in. Having had to go back to work I could only put sell orders out before I left only to find myself getting greedy and canceling them asking for just one more day to let these run as the pre-market in TGC and BPG were fired up and looking ready for another explosive day. So with canceled sell orders which would have brought a very healthy $3000+ gain again today I had to learn another on of those trading lessons...DON'T GET GREEDY!

So today I held on to the stock to see what tomorrow will bring and let go of AOG for a small gain to free up capital and MNKD for a small loss for the same. Today was one of those shoulda, coulda, woulda days as I made the mistake of not taking a $1200 profit only because it had been over $3000 earlier in the day. But this lesson like so many others is now burned into the brain that a profit is a profit and capital not moving is dead money. My thinking is that energy is only going up, but these spikes we have seen had to take a breather, and that's just what I think they will do, breath for abit. Natural gas is only going higher and SUV's still need to get to work with China and India growing exponentially in their energy usage.

The bright side of the day is the contest for TheLion.com portfolio ends next week and while in second place, the race is getting tighter. Stay tuned to see how this all ends up with three trading days left.

Wednesday, May 21, 2008

OIL - GAS - OIL -GAS Take Your Pick!


May 21 Review
Sold for Gain
FPP - $2410
ROYL - $505
Sold for Loss

XNL - $384

Total Gain - $2531

It was another crazy day in the energy sector as oil tops $132 with the big news that Crude futures are trading over $140! Are we going to see $150 a barrel oil? Back in 2003 I created a website called GeoCrisis that predicted this very thing with the advent of Peak Oil. The real question is how long can this bull run?

PDO showed no signs of stopping again today closing at $27.10 up 18.60% and FPP was all over the place with huge volume as expected. It had a low of $5.80 and a high $8.54 before closing at $7.23.


I sold all at $8.00 and would have bought more on the dip but decided to add positions in two stocks I had been watching TGC and BPG. At one point I could have taken another $1000 gain in both of these but will hold to see what tomorrow will bring. Both closed very strong which is what I look for with TGC up 35.42% at $1.30 and BPG up 36.17% closing at .30. Buyers were at the ready till the closing bell so with such strong closings I should be in very good shape going into tomorrow for some decent gains.



BPI Energy Holdings, Inc. is engaged in the exploration, production and commercial sale of coalbed methane (CBM). CBM is a form of natural gas that is generated during coal formation and is contained in underground coal seams and abandoned mines. It focuses in the acquisition, exploration, development and production of CBM reserves located in the Illinois Basin, which covers approximately 60,000 square miles in the mid to southern part of Illinois, southwest Indiana and northwest Kentucky.



TENGASCO, Inc. is in the business of exploring for, producing and transporting oil and natural gas in Kansas and Tennessee. The Company leases producing and non-producing properties with a view toward exploration and development, and owns pipeline and other infrastructure facilities used to provide transportation services. It utilizes seismic technology for the discovery of reserves. The principal markets for the Company’s crude oil are local refining companies, local utilities and private industry endusers.

The big loss of the day was one I told myself to put a stop loss on....but did I.....? Of course not! So I had to pull the trigger fro a loss on XNL....just to much downside and a VERY weak closing.

I'm still holding on to SYNM, AOG and as you can see in the holdings section IMB and MNKD. The first two look good going into tomorrow with SYNM up 7.91% and up in AH. AOG closed up a nice 11.59% so we should have another $2500 day if we play the trades right. One thing I have learned is timing, patience and letting go of all fear and any ego. If you believe in it after doing your DD, buy on the dips and sell into the tops of that strength in the high. And if you were wrong, and Lord knows I have made many mistakes, PRESERVE YOUR CAPITAL and get out before you get trapped and have to average down. Something I have learned the hard way as all traders do. There is nothing like a big loss to strengthen those memory cells into lessons learned. The trick is to put it behind you and move on with the next trade and make up the loss.

Of course I'm still holding CPST even through this down day as I committed the day traders sin.... I have grown attached to it and believe in it's technology...time will tell. Stay tuned for tomorrow's updates as we should have a good day and I will be looking to take gains and enter new positions if the capital is released in one of the accounts.

Tuesday, May 20, 2008

Caution - Gas Stocks on Fire!


Sold For Gain
CPSL - $734
MPET - $119
Total Gain for Today - $853


So today was my first day back to work in a week which means my trading time is limited to a my mid day off time after the market has chosen it's early morning risers. Just as expected energy stocks were on fire as well as anything having to do with Clean energy such as Bio-mass fuels or synthetic liquid hydrocarbons. I set myself up yesterday for some good gains and will be holding those positions through tomorrow as I believe some of these plays are just taking off while others may have a few more days left.

Though I had to work today, I was able to also work my way up to second place as DELTA on the Lion's Portfolio list for top gains in the last 30 days. Check it out!

While I said I was going to hang on to CPSL till $10 I came across an article that made me rethink this strategy when it discussed the possible dilution of the stock through selling more shares for capital investments in a new annealing line for producing high quality stainless steel and a new 1700mm cold roll mill at its facilities in Shanghai. So I sold and took a profit of $719 to get myself set up for what I expect to be another run in the energy sector.

Yesterday I took positions in FPP, ROYL, SYNM and MPET. MPET was moving to slow for me as I want my capital to be moving at all times when possible so I sold MPET today for a small gain of $119 and increased my positions in SYNM buying on the dips today around $2.50 twice. Though SYNM has had a remarkable run, I still believe this has some more energy in it to propel it to $3.00. Not only did SYNM regain the Nasdaq Compliance but Dynamic Fuels LLC were just giving preliminary approval for Bonds to fund the building of the company's first renewable synthetic fuels facility in Geismar, Louisiana. Dynamic is a 50:50 venture between Syntroleum Corporation (Nasdaq: SYNM) and Tyson Foods, Inc. (NYSE: TSN) to convert low grade, inedible fats and greases into renewable synthetic diesel, jet and military fuel. Syntroleum Corporation owns the Syntroleum(r) Process for converting synthesis gas derived from biomass, coal, natural gas and other carbon-based feedstocks, and the Bio-Synfining technology for converting animal fat and vegetable oil feedstocks into synthetic liquid hydrocarbons. The Company plans to use its technology to develop and participate in synthetic and renewable fuel projects utilizing the Company's technology in a number of global locations.

As you can see by the chart SYNM has been unstoppable since mid April and had tremendous buying power today. This should hit $3.00 with no problem so I went all in with what I had left in one of my three accounts.

The second holding is FPP which just was went ballistic today and looks like to will continue it's fun ride. Like PDO which closed at $22.85 up another crazy 24.86% (Did I really sell this at $18.50? Lesson learned!) and MXC which just went nuclear closing at $42.53 up a whopping 52.44%!!!!! If you ever wanted to just weep at a chart knowing you didn't buy, just look at this baby! All I can say is WOW!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!


No...your eyes are not deceiving you...that is just about the craziest lift off I have ever seen...and I didn't buy...oh well, lot's of lessons learned in this trading game, you just have to move on and find the next play. Which is why I'm in FPP. I could have sold for a $1275 gain but decided that the momo on this one was just too strong so we're going into tomorrow loaded in the energy sector.


As you can see the volume and buying power were just unreal and I would have been a fool to sell today. So we're holding here and also in ROYL.

Another solid day with what I believe is more to come. I read today where a trader called IR and was told there will be some upcoming news about a possible Natural Gas play they may have in there Utah holdings. Might have to hold to see where this one goes as it was up 20.47% to close at $5.59 with on huge volume. SHould have added at the $3.50 dip as it was up AH.

CPST continues it's slow steady climb to $3.95 so I still cannot sell and will hold here and possibly add more as I am a solid believer in their incredible technology that even NASA is exploring.

New additions to the portfolio were AOG and XNL. Pure spec plays with energy being hotter then even the sun and Solar stocks. AOG or Aurora Oil & Gas Corporation is an independent energy company focused on the exploration and development of unconventional natural gas reserves. The Company’s projects target unconventional shale plays where large acreage blocks can be evaluated with a series of low-cost test wells.

AOG was up 52.65% at .69 and XNL was up 19.5% at .75 in sympathy with PEIX but reached as high as .99. So tomorrow should be an interesting day with lots of profits to be made. Stay tuned to see how much gas these energy pays have!


Monday, May 19, 2008

Oil and China Steel -May 19th Update

CHINA STEEL SOARS!

Sold For Gain Today
PDO - $2165
CPSL - $722
MTZ - $66
ICPR $25
Sold for Loss Today
EWST - $11

Total Gain Today $2967!!

China Steel and Energy stocks again led the day with Solar taking gains and settling down towards the end of the day. But the story was China Steel CPSL, SUTR and Energy Stocks PDO, MXP, FPP, MPET and SYNM.

CNBC had one guest reporting that global demand for steel was IMMENSE! Again, RIO, MTL and the likes have been excellent plays and continue to be, but to be able to buy a China Steel company for less the $8 a share is simply a STEAL. :-)


China Precision Steel is a niche precision steel processing company principally engaged in producing and selling high precision cold-rolled steel products with high margin. I sold half my position today for a solid gain, but a better play would have been to hold all of it. This one showed incredible stength in the market today with big money buys on the dips and closed up 33.33% at $7.96. I'm looking at $10 for this before I consider selling.


The big question of the day was whether or not PDO would hold on to it's 65%+ gains or could the shorts to take it down. By the end of the day PDO proved it's place on the scene adding another 16.90% as this looks like a perfect short squeeze in the making when IBD releases it's new rankings.

Although I believe EWST will be a terrific stock, there just isn't enough volume in this one yet so I sold off my position for an $11 loss and took positions in FPP, SYNM, ROYL as the energy plays are just too good to pass up. As you can see overall it was a VERY GOOD day and I think I'm set up nicely going into the week. I took all the profits from PDO to get into these new plays. FPP closed at $4.28 up 36.37%, SYNM closed at $2.45 up 31.02% and ROYL at $4.64 up 12.94%.


SYNM has been ripping it up lately and they should. Syntroleum is utilizing its Bio-Synfining™ technology to produce renewable synthetic fuels with the same superior qualities as petroleum based products.

FieldPoint Petroleum Corporation or FPP is engaged in oil and gas exploration, production, and acquisition.

As of January 2008, the Company has varying ownership interest in approximately 300 wells located in Oklahoma, Louisiana, New Mexico, Texas and Wyoming. Perfect plays with energy stocks soaring so this should be another good week.

Magellan Petroleum Corporation MPET was another pick added to the portfolio and is engaged in the sale of oil and gas and the exploration for and development of oil and gas reserves. The Company has operations in Australia, Canada and the United Kingdom. Again another mover right now in the market and at $1.83 could see some big gains fast.


Finally Capstone Turbine had another great day and thought Ii could have sold at the high in the of $3.8o's but I just feel this company is more of a long term hold. If you haven't seen what they build, check out this video an then you to just might be as excited as I am about there future.







Friday, May 16, 2008

HOT PLAYS- ENERGY - SOLAR, OIL, NATURAL GAS


Well it looks like this bull market in Solar and Energy stocks is just not going to stop. This past week I took positions in SOLF, AKNS, CPST, RCH and PDO for 20% to 65% gains. SOLF has earnings next Wednesday and PDO just released earnings with revenues up 92%! Of course I wasn't mad at Cramer when he mentioned CPST on his show only to watch it breakthrough that $3.50 resistance level to $3.68 AH.

CAPSTONE TURBINE
Up 2.96% Friday and 5.75% AH

With FSLR being the hottest stock last year, and Oil reaching $126 a barrel with no signs of leveling off it looks this bull in Solar and Energy will be with us throughout 08. So might be a good time to buy on the dips or into earnings. Look towards Natural Gas plays such as ECA, SU and companies involved in the Shale business such as CHK, DVN and XTO.


PYRAMID OIL
Up 66% Thursday - Up 6.06% Friday



Steel is also another hot play as I took positions in CPSL on Friday. RIO, MTL, and now SUTR have all been excellent performing stocks and show continuing promise.


CHINA PRECISION STEEL
Up 37.56 Friday

Stay tuned for more this Monday!
 
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