Wednesday, June 4, 2008

Demand Destruction!


June 4 Update
Sold for Gain
CPST - $531
Sold for Loss
OMNI - $105
EEE - $56
TGC - 285
Total Gain - $85

Demand destruction was the buzz word of the day...but that might as well have been the description of my portfolios. With Oil fallen to it's lowest price in a month to $122.30 the oil sector took a few hits and my TGC play just went sideways for most of the day dipping back down to close at$1.33 down 7.56%. I got out at a small loss again in OMNI. In PM it was showing some really good action ...so I broke my rule and bought in PM only to watch it drop from the opening bell.

Repeat after me...Never by in PM...Never by in PM....Never by in PM. And yet there is always an exception and but this wasn't one of them. I have seen that it is best to buy in AH and then sell the hope of those in PM.

I also sold for another small loss with EEE needing to free up capital ans so I had to sell some CPST at the hod to offset the losses to net a gain on the day and overcome the BEXP fall that I still have. By doing so I freed up close to $10,000 so the net gain of even a little green was worth the sells. With CSUN and LDK not cooperating and BEXP looking more like an investment for the future, I needed something make moves with.

Of course JBLU is on it's way back up as expected but my tight stop took me out the other day but is is looking good so I placed in my Lion portfolio the other day.


As I stated ealier, Demand Destruction was the mantra of the day and for those who may not know what this is, I wrote about this back in 2003 concerning the peak oil scenario on Geocrisis when I was really into researching that perspective. But basically it means our growing economy consumes more oil each and the only way to offset this growth in oil demand is higher prices. As the supply of a resource decreases, the price goes up to reduce the demand to match. This is called demand destruction.

· From a report commissioned by the United States Department of Energy (USDOE):

a. "'the economic loss to the United States [due to oil production peaking] could be measured on a trillion-dollar scale...Expediency may require major changes to ... lengthy environmental reviews and lengthy public involvement'...the authors believe "20 years is enough time to limit damage from any peak. However, they point out that 'if mitigation were to be too little, too late, world supply/demand balance will be achieved through massive demand destruction…'"

b. "…which would create a long period of significant economic hardship worldwide."

(a) excerpted from, "US Report Acknowledges Peak-Oil Threat," March 9, 2005, and (b) excerpted from ASPO's March Newsletter.

So alternative energy plays will be a sure thing for the long run and energy prices though dipping today in the long run will not stay low. With elections on the horizon we may very well see lower prices as per usual for this time and we may also have an October surprise, but nothing will stop the need for energy so I feel confident in both the Solars and the Oils for the long term. Besides, were just one event from a pipeline break or hurricane to set off oil again. No need to panic here.

But what you always want to follow the hot sectors and Tech seems to be hot right nw which is why I'm looking at ANADIGICS, or ANAD. I've been watching this since it was in the sixes, always saying I was getting in, only to buy something else. Big mistake that I may just rectify.



ANADIGICS is a provider of semiconductor solutions in the broadband wireless and wireline communications markets. The Company’s products include power amplifiers (PAs), tuner integrated circuits, active splitters, line amplifiers and other components, which can be sold individually or packaged as integrated radio frequency (RF) and front end modules. ANAD gapped up off of a first-quarter net profit of $3.93 million, or 7 cents a share, from a net loss of $1.16 million, or 2 cents a share, a year earlier. Since then it has been on fire and shows no let up. I'll be looking for the next dip as theres no need to chase but thought I would put this one on radar.

Another stock that I put in my portfoli at the Lion today was MTL and I will be looking at this tomoorw AM to put some money into after todays dip.

Mechel is a Russia-based integrated mining and steel company. It specializes in the production of coking and steam coal, iron ore, nickel and steel. Its business consists of two segments: Mining and Steel, comprising facilities in Russia, Romania and Lithuania. The Mining segment is engaged in the production and sale of coal, iron ore and nickel. The Steel segment is involved in the production and sale of semi-finished steel products, carbon and specialty long products, stainless flat products and value-added downstream metal products. In addition, Mechel OAO owns and operates two trade ports and a railway.




MTL just had a 3/1 stock split may 20th and what makes them unique is that they are the only Steel maker I know that mines there own ore, and coal with the added bonus of a rail transport. They are a one stop powerhouse that is a money machine. I think tomorrow if the funds have settled, I'm in for a long position here, especially if it touches that moving average around $50.

Still looking for better days where demand destruction is not the tome but the past. Still looking for some big gainers as I try to mange losses and hang tight on the solars. In time they will move even if and ANALyst wants to say LDK is overweight, I'll just double down for bigger profits later!

1 comment:

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